# 305 – Trump’s Effect on Israel

January 22, 2017

It has been suggested that I start a blog – perhaps replace these emails with a blog. That’s being now considered. Any comments and suggestions will be welcomed.

The timing for a blog is, perhaps, right. Today the World order is expected to change. We are about to be Trumped. (I grew up as a bridge player; I shall surely re-enter that world when I slow down. In the meantime, it is likely I shall refer to the game during the next 4 years. (‘8 years!!’ do I hear some of you shout?).

One ‘adjustment’ I am making is the publishing of all my letters on Ourboox.com, a free online publishing website. I have already 35 ‘other books’ published, so what’s another 305 (This email is, in fact, Letter No. 305 – or 306 – who knows..).

On October 27, 2004, in ‘Letter of Israel # 38, entitled ‘Extracts’, I wrote the following 3 paragraphs –

Yesterday, the Knesset voted to leave Gaza. It was not really part of the peace negotiations. It’s quite simple – like in Lebanon, if the enemy does not want peace, if they do not allow a mixture of citizens, then we separate the 2, draw a clear border, and NOW we can clearly identify the enemy. Tragic, but that’s how it is.

It’s a proven fact that building of borders, giving ‘them’ the land they demand, does not guarantee peace, nor a better life for the Palestinians or Lebanese.

Many of the settlers are not the ones you see screaming on the TV. They are people who were convinced by the then government to settle, with peace as the expected target. They built beautiful homes and villages, farms and small industries. A great potential partner for the Palestinian neighbours. Now they have to uproot. One tragedy after another.

In ‘democratic’ countries (I have trouble writing that word without questioning the definition) the influx of educated and and industrious immigrants often results in progress. In fact, you don’t have to compare the West Bank only with Gaza. Put is against most countries and you see economical success. The Palestinian leaders should/could take a step back, start accepting reality, and get used to a decent country.

It’s a week to go till the US elections. PLEASE LET THE GOOD GUY WIN!!

That’s what I wrote 12 years ago. Do any of you recall who lost against the incumbent George W. Bush? Who was the one I referred to as the ‘good guy’? It was John Kerry….How different would it have been, had Kerry won. What would have been the context of his speech last week, had he had the experience of occupying the White House?

President Trump will have to somewhat ‘soften’ his actions once in power. But still, we all know that there will be some dramatic changes. Here are a couple which will directly effect Israel and could disrupt the region –

Move the US embassy to Jerusalem.

The Arabs, especially the Palestinians, have so much political confidence, that such a move could start the 3rd Intifada. Israel’s reaction to that would severely test their standing in the international community. Trump’s subsequent support of Israel will push Iran’s mercenaries is Gaza and south Lebanon to the edge.

Jared Kushner is Trump’s new envoy to the Middle East. 

He’s the son-in-law, married to Ivanka. They are orthodox jews. I shall be ‘happily surprised if this good-looking, well-mannered, inexperienced gentleman can succeed where so many others have failed. And if/when he does, an exasperated President is going to get himself more-involved. He’s the kind of businessman who will not take no for an answer, and will insist that ‘a deal is always possible’.

I think the Middle East is high on Trump’s priority list. He has members of his team who want something to happen. I actually think that his gung-ho style has more chance of some success in this region.

Recind some or all of the Iran deal

Not sure how Trump will force that toothpaste back into the tube. That said, I do not believe the Iranians are people with whom the ‘non-diplomat’ Trump can work. I see a modern-day Cuban crisis on the horizon.

Build the Mexican wall

That will remind everyone that such walls exist all over the World, and often show immediate and clear results. I might actually start calling ours ‘a wall’, even though most of it is ‘a fence’.

One of the reasons I say I like living in Israel is that there’s never a dull moment. Something’s always happening, whether positive or negative. That may not be something for the Swiss, Norwegians or Luxenbourgers, and as I get older, I also may want ‘peace and quiet’.

For the next 100 days at least, there will not be many dull moments.

Stephen