# 416 – Israel in the Black

Israel in the Black

This could potentially be a long letter. I shall try to ‘restrict’ it.

Admittedly paid for by the protesters, these were the front pages of Israel’s newspapers the day after the Knesset voted 64-0 to pass the first of a series of laws, restricting the power of the judiciary – or, to phase it more controversially, to increase the power of the legislate over the judiciary. They used the word ‘reasonableness’, which opens many doors – and keeps them open. Were this the only step, then we’d only worry.

But this has been promised to be the first of several steps, and we are ‘alarmed’ to say the least.

Who is ‘we’? Good question. I know several very decent people who are very right-wing, or, to put it more specifically, very pro-Netanyahu. I already had an exchange of correspondence with one (they will recognise ‘themself’ – is there such a word?). They – and Bibi – claim he had a majority in the last election. Well, 32 out of 120 seats is just under 28%. And only 70.6% voted.

So he won less than 19% of the people. Democratic systems’ then insist on the formation of a coalition, otherwise there’d never be a government. But this is a system of convenience.

In Bibi’s case, he went to bed with the extreme right, and now desperately survives by calling it ‘a majority of the people’. Well, 28 consecutive weeks of major demonstrations across the country should give him a hint as to the truth.

I was going to write a paraphrase of a podcast by the INSS – Institute of National Security Studies – which is considered the leading Israeli think tank. It took place a day after that vote. One of the 3 speakers is a neighbour, friend and sometime tennis partner, Meir Elran.

It is 52 minutes long. I already sent it to some of you, and have received back some very serious comments. But…a paraphrase can be too long. So, I am first giving you the link and suggesting to you to make a good coffee, or pour a soothing glass of wine, and watch/listen.

https://www.inss.org.il/podcast/?utm_source=activetrail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=INSS%20Podcast%20%7C%20After%20the%20Revocation%20of%20the%20Reasonableness%20Standard:%20The%20Near%20Future

The podcast followed Biden’s dramatic invitation to the journalist, Thomas Friedman, for a chat at the White House. The subject was primarily Israel. No invite to Bibi, but 90 mins with Friedman. (Presumably the main reason for Biden’s tel. call to Bibi shortly after. Couldn’t allow tongues to ‘overwag’).

For you others, I shall try to ‘bullet’ the points made:

* This is an ongoing social and political crisis, exposing a dramatic split between govt. and the people – never seen before in Israel’s history.

* Govt. trying to change a balance between judiciary and legislative, which has worked for 75 years. Adjustments are always healthy, but a shift in power is dangerous.

* The protesters are not just ‘you and me’. They include the elite, the military, hi-tech, industry and business leaders, legal minds and academia etc. There is a threat to our social system, the economy, our political structure etc.

* Yes, there is a lack of trust in the government – a fear of dictatorship.

* There have always been healthy differences within Israeli society. But now the rifts are wide and are ‘unhealthy’.

* Likud used to be centre-right. They are now the most moderate party within the ruling coalition. The culprit? Its leader, Netanyahu. Bibi. His pending indictments continuously lurk in the background. He has written his book. He has done so much for his country. But, for perhaps obvious reasons, he cannot let go of the reins.

* The coalition is controlled by right-wing and religious extremists. They are against many minorities, but also against women. The 2 ultra-ortho religious parties don’t even allow female members.

* The courts traditionally protected the rights of women, and the minorities including Arabs, Christians and recent immigrants from N. Africa. This is now an existential threat, potentially splitting up friendships, families, marriages – and the whole integration movement.

(Simple example: There used to be a serious rift between Ashkenazi (central European) and Sephardi Jews in Israel, those originally from Spain/Portugal, many of whom settled in the Arab countries. Aviva’s family were even referred to as ‘pure Sephardi’ having come to Israel directly from the Spanish Inquisition in 1492. Her generation have ALL married Ashkenazim. All the children are mixed. That’s integration).

* The crisis has created a new phenomenon in Israel: hate.

* It’s the fringes who are the problem. The last election gave them power.

* This problem may not end soon; it can evolve into something much worse.

* Luckily – surprisingly – almost no violence. The police have been fair. Imagine this in Paris or L.A.

* But there is a definite trend amongst the extreme political and religious right towards policies that can be considered racist and fascist, words still abhorred by the overall Jewish community.

* On the other hand, the silent majority, the liberal wing of Israeli society, has awoken. If anything can be described correctly as ‘social democracy’ this is it.

* The military, who are traditionally patriots, part of a ‘decent and moral military’, are now joining the protesters. They are not anarchists, but this is a dangerous trend.

* It is basically down to Bibi himself to be a good leader and to reach out to soften the anger and the hatred. But he’s still under the cloud of indictment – not yet proven one way or the other.

In many other ‘democratic’ countries, the accused would by now have taken a step back – for the good of the country.

And now to focus on the USA-Israel relationship –

* They need each other. Don’t think that the $3.8 billion is so important. Israel can handle that amount itself. It’s far more than that:

* They have shared values, which include ‘liberal democracy’. (Trump’s presidency shakes that description). If Israel is no longer ‘the only democracy in the Middle East’, what then?

And the Middle East is no longer as important a region for the US as before. (China, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, N. Korea).

* The pro-Israel lobby in USA is weakening, partly because of the changes in US society. The Latin Americans and Oriental immigrants are less interested in Israel.

* Like it or not, but the Palestinian issue is still ‘popular’ in the West, and Israel must be seen to be interested in peace with their neighbours. They should act in a way that makes the Palestinians appear to be the obstacle.

* The settlements remain a bitter pill for the Americans to swallow. The Israeli right are working towards one state, which inevitably would open accusations of ‘apartheid’ etc. (Right now, with the ‘occupied’ or ‘disputed’ territories, this is NOT the case).

* The US relations with other countries in the region have always been transient. Saudi, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, UAE etc. have never been able to ‘assure’ the US of long-term partnership. That’s been the foundation of the US-Israel relationship, whoever has been in power. This is now ‘shaking’.

* And that UN veto….The UN, and other associated organisations, have always shown an anti-Israel bias. The US veto has been a rock behind which Israel has been able to stand strong.

And while mentioning those other countries in the region, none are in the same geo-political situation as Israel. (You will rarely find a car in Israel with the ‘IL’ badge on the back. Unlike the “D” in Germany, ‘GB’ in the UK and ‘I’ in Italy. Why? Because we have no friendly neighbours into which to holiday.

* The World’s 2nd largest Jewish community is in the USA, and it is no secret that the Jewish lobby is extremely influential. But even their support for Israel is now at risk.

* Israel’s relationship with the USA is the basic pillar of our existence. Security, intelligence, culture, science, technology, cyber, agriculture, arts. You name it…

* No, it’s’ not the $3.8 billion, but it is the quality of the arms provided. We continue to have the military advantage over our foes.

* The joint strategic and operational planning between the 2 is ultra-important, especially vis-à-vis Iran.

* It is a frightening fact that the extreme right in Israel not only do not support the relationship with the US, they oppose it. They aim for that Greater Israel, just making sure the Almighty is with them. For this, they also want to weaken the judiciary.

* The younger sector of (US) society sees a different Israel to the one in ’48 and ’67 (and Entebbe). They have no real interest in today’s Israel.

Interesting that, although ‘80% of US Jews continue to vote Democrat’, for the first time, more than 50% Democrats no longer support Israel. The Republican support for Israel centres on the Evangelists, but most Jews appear unwilling to reciprocate that support.

It’s up to Bibi to

1. Stop this reform process

2. Heal the wounds

3. Work with the opposition to change ‘the charter’ (similar to a constitution).

and I add:

4. To take a step back into history.

5. To try to protect his strong legacy by      facing the charges against him.

6. To ensure new elections, so that we can try to return to a more honest liberal democracy. We did had 5 elections in 2 years in the search for a govt. supported by a national consensus.

Why not a 6th?

7. We need politicians to lead us who appear to have interest ‘the good of the country’.

Extremism has no part in any government.

Stephen